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Come fall, give Thursday night to ABC

Come fall, give

Thursday night to ABC

Researchers see CBS holding onto second place

By Kevin Downey

Jul 25, 2008

When the new season begins in September, Thursday night will againbe the most fought-over, and NBC will be fighting hard to regainthe lead it held for 20 years until its tumble earlier this decade.

But it will likely be for naught, predict media researchers.

ABC will be No. 1 in viewers 18-49, largely on the strength ofSGrey"s Anatomy, with CBS No. 2.

They see NBC struggling to hold onto third place in 18-49 viewers,and they think Fox stands a good chance of pushing the network intofourth place.NBC's strongest Thursday shows are long-fading SMy Name is Earlat 8 p.m. and SThe Office at 9 p.m., but they are not masshits, and the network's onetime monster hit, SER,is limpinginto its final season. The medical drama ranked No. 58 in totalviewers last season, and this season it's facing two newcompetitors at 10 p.m.

By contrast, Fox was the only network last season to see itsThursday rating increase on the strength of its reality shows "AreYou Smarter Than a 5th Grader?" and "Don't Forget the Lyrics." Itwas up 7 percent over 2006-07, based on live-plus-seven-dayratings--program ratings that include the original broadcast andseven days of DVR playback.

Now it's trying out more reality on the night. SKitchenNightmares is moving into the 9 p.m. slot and Fox switchedWednesday hit SMoment of Truth to Thursdays at 8 p.m.SFor fourth quarter, we have Fox looking slightly better than NBCbecause oment of Truth did some nice business, says ShariAnne Brill, senior vice president and director of programming atCarat.

Sit’ s possible we’re looking at a fourth-place finish for NBCon C3, she says, referring to commercial ratings with three daysof DVR playback.CBS ranked No. 1 on live-plus seven last season, which was rockedby the writers strike, with a 4.2 rating, down 16 percent. ABChad a 4, down 25 percent, followed by NBC with a 3.5, down 8percent, and Fox with a 3.2 rating. The CW had a 1.3, down 13percent.Critical this September will be the 10 p.m. timeslot."ER" faces a real threat in CBS "s British import SEleventhHour, from SCSI producer Jerry Bruckheimer, which will leadout of SCSI at 10 p.m.ABC "s SLife on Mars, also based on a British show, is more ofa question mark. It had appeared to be a threat to SER whenproducer David E. Kelley was involved, but he has dropped out ofthe project.SYou have to think leventh Hour " will visually be a realgood fit coming out of says David Scardino,entertainment specialist at RPA in Santa Monica, Calif. SNBCmight be able to get a little extra ratings steam for because it is its last year, but I don’t think it’ll get thaton a consistent basis.

NBC likely also has a problem at 8:30 p.m. The new SKath &Kim, based on an Australian comedy, is in trouble, according tomedia pundits. NBC is said to be struggling to adapt the show forAmerican viewers, toning down some of its crudeness.

Perhaps NBC"s best bet for a ratings bump is S30 Rock at 9:30p.m., which premieres in October. The show is coming off an Emmywin last year for best comedy and received a slew of nominationsthis year, which could bring it some additional attention.